Host: 上海立信会计金融学院

  • ISSN 2096-9554
  • CN 31-2074/F
Volume 35 Issue 1
Jan.  2021
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
Article Navigation >  Accounting and Economic Research  > 2021  >  35(1): 110-127
Lyu Jianglin, Guo Junying, Li Jian. 2021. Aging, Housing Prices and Macro Leverage Ratio. Accounting and Economic Research, 35(1): 110-127.
Citation: Lyu Jianglin, Guo Junying, Li Jian. 2021. Aging, Housing Prices and Macro Leverage Ratio. Accounting and Economic Research, 35(1): 110-127.
shu

Aging, Housing Prices and Macro Leverage Ratio

  • 1.

    School of Finance, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang Jiangxi 330013, China

  • 2.

    Zhejiang College, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Jinhua Zhejiang 321000, China

  • Received Date: 2020-07-09
  • Publish Date: 2021-01-25
    Abstract
  • By constructing a benchmark DSGE model and its expansion model and introducing loan system of household, enterprises, government and aging shock into models, this paper studies the impact of aging on financial stability from perspectives of housing prices and macro leverage ratio. The results reveal that in the expansion model with the attributes of housing investment products considered, under the aging shock, the leverage ratio of Chinese residents could rise, housing price could plummet and then plunge, which is likely to cause the housing price bubble to burst and trigger a financial crisis. What’s more, the technical shock would further increase the leverage ratio of residents and if it is superimposed with the aging shock, the fluctuation of housing price could double. Then, after the housing price bubble bursts, the financial crisis may be inevitable. In the benchmark model, which does not consider the attributes of housing investment products, the negative impact of the aging shock on the housing prices and leverage ratio is significantly weakened. China must build a mechanism of “no housing speculation”, improve and promote policies of “household pension” to develop a good financial investment environment and alleviate the negative impact of aging on financial stability.

     

    • FullText(HTML)
  • loading
    • References(42)
  • [1]
    巴曙松. 2013. 人口结构的宏观金融含义: 资产、负债及杠杆率. 经济体制改革 (1): 12−16.
    [2]
    蔡昉. 2010. 人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点. 经济研究 (4): 4−13.
    [3]
    陈雨露, 马勇, 徐律. 2014. 老龄化、金融杠杆与系统性风险. 国际金融研究 (9): 3−14.
    [4]
    丁洋, 郑江淮. 2018. 中国人口老龄化会减少住房需求吗? 中国软科学 (2): 68−77. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-9753.2018.02.007
    [5]
    郭娜, 章倩, 周扬. 2017. 房价“粘性”, 系统性金融风险与宏观经济波动—基于内生化系统性风险的DSGE模型. 当代经济科学 (6): 7−16.
    [6]
    郭娜, 胡佳琪. 2018. 人口老龄化趋势、区域差异与房地产价格波动的实证分析. 统计与决策 (5): 92−95.
    [7]
    李建强, 张淑翠. 2018. 人口老龄化影响财政与货币政策的有效性吗? 财经研究 (7): 16−32.
    [8]
    李建伟. 2020. 我国劳动力供求格局、技术进步与经济潜在增长率. 管理世界 (4): 96−113. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5502.2020.04.011
    [9]
    李丽芳, 柴时军, 王聪. 2015. 生命周期、人口结构与居民投资组合—来自中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)的证据. 华南师范大学学报(社会科学版) (4): 13−18.
    [10]
    刘吕吉, 李桥, 张馨丹. 2014. 人口结构变迁与财政社会保障支出水平研究—基于省级面板数据的实证分析. 贵州财经大学学报 (4): 91−97. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-6636.2014.04.012
    [11]
    牟新娣, 李秀婷, 董纪昌, 董志, 朱琳琳. 2019. 老龄化对房价的影响机制: 基于中国的实证研究. 系统工程理论与实践 (4): 1018−1030. doi: 10.12011/1000-6788-2018-1996-13
    [12]
    彭秀健. 2006. 中国人口老龄化的宏观经济后果—应用一般均衡分析. 人口研究 (4): 12−22. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6087.2006.04.002
    [13]
    苏宗敏, 王中昭. 2015. 人口老龄化背景下中国基本养老保险支出水平的探析. 宏观经济研究 (7): 59−64.
    [14]
    谭海鸣, 姚余栋, 郭树强, 宁辰. 2016. 老龄化、人口迁移、金融杠杆与经济长周期. 经济研究 (2): 69−81.
    [15]
    童伟, 张居营. 2018. 人口老龄化与房价波动对居民部门债务风险的影响研究. 财经论丛 (3): 19−28.
    [16]
    吴卫星, 易尽然, 郑建明. 2010. 中国居民家庭投资结构: 基于生命周期、财富和住房的实证分析. 经济研究 (1): 72−82.
    [17]
    徐妍, 郑冠群, 沈悦. 2015. 房地产价格与我国货币政策规则—基于多部门NK-DSGE模型的研究. 南开经济研究 (4): 136−152.
    [18]
    鄢莉莉, 王一鸣. 2012. 金融发展、金融市场冲击与经济波动—基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析. 金融研究 (12): 82−95.
    [19]
    易祯, 朱超. 2017. 人口结构与金融市场风险结构: 风险厌恶的生命周期时变特征. 经济研究 (9): 150−164.
    [20]
    余静文, 姚翔晨. 2019. 人口年龄结构与金融结构—宏观事实与微观机制. 金融研究 (4): 20−38.
    [21]
    仲晏晏. 2017. 人口结构变化、经济过度金融化与房地产泡沫研究. 厦门大学.
    [22]
    Eichholtz, P., and T. Lindenthal. 2014. Demographics, human capital, and the demand for housing. Journal of Housing Economics 26: 19−32. doi: 10.1016/j.jhe.2014.06.002
    [23]
    Engelhardt, G. V., and J. M. Poterba. 1991. House prices and demographic change. Regional Science and Urban Economics 21(4): 539−546. doi: 10.1016/0166-0462(91)90017-H
    [24]
    Hiller, N., and O. W. Lerbs. 2016. Aging and urban house prices. Regional Science and Urban Economics 60: 276−291. doi: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.07.010
    [25]
    Jimeno, J. F., J. A. Rojas, and S. Puente. 2006. Modelling the impact of aging on social security expenditures. Economic Modelling 25(2): 201−224.
    [26]
    Kotera, G., and K. Okada. 2017. How does democratization affect the composition of government expenditure? Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 137(5): 145−159.
    [27]
    Mankiw, N. G., and D. N. Weil. 1991. The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market a reply to our critics. Regional Science and Urban Economics 21(4): 573−579. doi: 10.1016/0166-0462(91)90021-E
    [28]
    Masson, P. R., and R. W. Tryon. 1990. Macroeconomic effects of projected population aging in industrial countries. Staff Papers 37(3): 453−485. doi: 10.2307/3867261
    [29]
    McMorrow, K., and W. Roeger. 1999. The economic consequences of ageing populations. Economic Papers.
    [30]
    Meijdam, L., A. Harrie, and A. Verbon. 1997. Aging and public pensions in an overlapping generations model. Oxford Economic Papers 49(1): 29−42. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.oep.a028595
    [31]
    Molina-Morales, A., I. Amate-Fortes, and A. Rueda. 2013. Social expenditure in the European union: Does inequality matter. Journal of Economic Issues 47(3): 745−764. doi: 10.2753/JEI0021-3624470308
    [32]
    Nguyen, T., and R. Stuzle. 2012. Implications of an aging population on pension systems and financial markets. Theoretical Economics Letters 2(2): 141−151. doi: 10.4236/tel.2012.22026
    [33]
    Poterba, J. M. 2001. Demographic structure and asset returns. Review of Economics and Statistics 83(4): 565−584.
    [34]
    Sabbagh, C., and P. Vanhuysse. 2010. Intergenerational justice perceptions and the role of welfare regimes: A comparative analysis of university students. Administration & Society 42(6): 638−667.
    [35]
    Sacchi, A., and S. Salotti. 2016. A comprehensive analysis of expenditure decentralization and of the composition of local public spending. Regional Studies 50(1): 93−109. doi: 10.1080/00343404.2014.893387
    [36]
    Saita, Y., C. Shimizu, and T. Watanabe. 2016. Aging and real estate prices: Evidence from Japanese and US regional data. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis 9(1): 66−87.
    [37]
    Sanz, I., and F. J. Velázquez. 2007. The role of ageing in the growth of government and social welfare spending in the OECD. European Journal of Political Economy 23(4): 917−931. doi: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2007.01.003
    [38]
    Sun, T., S. Chand, and K. Sharpe. 2018. Effect of aging on housing prices: A perspective from an overlapping generation model. MPRA paper.
    [39]
    Takáts, E. 2010. Ageing and asset prices. BIS Working Papers.
    [40]
    Takáts, E. 2012. Aging and house prices. Journal of Housing Economics 21(2): 131−141. doi: 10.1016/j.jhe.2012.04.001
    [41]
    Tepe, M., and P. Vanhuysse. 2009. Are aging OECD welfare states on the path to gerontocracy? Evidence from 18 democracies, 1980−2002. Journal of Public Policy 29(1): 1−28. doi: 10.1017/S0143814X0900097X
    [42]
    Yoshino, N., and H. Miyamoto. 2017. Declined effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies faced with aging population in Japan. Japan and the World Economy 42: 32−44. doi: 10.1016/j.japwor.2017.06.002
    • Relative Articles
    • Supplements(0)
    • Cited By

Catalog

    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索

    Figures(3)  / Tables(3)

    Get Citation
    PDF
    XML
    Article views (204) PDF downloads(494) Cited by()
    Proportional views
    Related
    Link 

    Copyright © 会计与经济研究备案序号: 沪ICP备09005481号-4

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return